A behavioural model of the coronavirus

There is an interesting section in this letter from Bronte Capital about developing a behavioural model of the Coronavirus. The letter points out that as people's perceptions about the danger of going out and socialising increases, their behaviour will change which will lower the R rate in the epidemiology model. Other factors are obviously important. Without a good healthcare and welfare system, the citizens of countries like the U.S. have a greater incentive to go out and work despite an increase in perceived risk.

The paper points out that either a full lock-down or no lock-down (but with social provisions to support people not going out during times of increased risk) can be effective at containing the spread of the virus, but partial lock-down is the worst policy to adopt.