This morning the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, told the UK public to start preparing for a “No Deal” Brexit. Most commentators I follow on Twitter believe that there will be a trade deal - albeit a thin one. The Guardian has what I think is a good analysis of today’s analysis.
The Economist made a point that I thought was a good one though: Whatever the future deal will be between the UK and the EU, it will be worse that the current situation, and there is bound to be disruption. This disruption will be a lot easier to explain away by Johnson if there isn’t a trade agreement than if there is one. For this reason, I think the chances of a deal are less than people think. Also, I think that politically it could be easier for EU leaders to maintain a harder line and let talks fail.
Regardless, we should know in a few weeks whether there will be a trade deal or not. Time is definitely running out.